Manchester City go to the City Ground on Saturday evening needing to avoid something that has not happened to them in the Premier League since early 2016: a third league defeat in a row.
Enzo Maresca’s side lost to Aston Villa and then 1-0 to Brighton at the Etihad, results that cost them top spot to champions Arsenal. The 3-2 win at RB Leipzig on Wednesday steadied things in Europe, but the league form is what Saturday is about.
Nottingham Forest, on the other hand, are 19th under Oliver Glasner. Kick-off is at 17:30 (UK) on Saturday 7 November, and these are the numbers that frame the game.
Can Man City avoid three league defeats in a row?
The last time City lost three Premier League games on the bounce was February and March 2016, when Manuel Pellegrini was still in charge. That is how rare a run like this is for the Blues, and why Saturday carries more weight than a trip to the bottom three normally would.
The Brighton defeat also ended a 24-game scoring streak in the league. City were not short of chances that day either: 21 shots, 1.92 expected goals (xG) and more than 60% of the ball, and still nothing to show for it.
The bigger worry is at the other end. City have conceded 14 goals in their last seven games in all competitions, and Maresca said after Leipzig that the goals came from individual mistakes rather than the system.
Forest’s numbers make grim reading
Glasner has won only one of his first nine Premier League games in charge (D3 L5), and Forest have taken one point from the last 15 available. They are the joint-lowest scorers in the division with six goals and have failed to score in five of their nine matches.
That is not for want of trying. Forest average 16.9 shots per game, the second most in the league behind Manchester United’s 18.6. At Brentford last weekend they had 15 shots and lost 2-0, with their only effort on target arriving in the 79th minute.
Winless and goalless at the City Ground
The home record is the most striking stat of the lot. Forest have not won or scored in five home league games this season, and their last two at the City Ground were 1-0 defeats to Coventry and Arsenal.
Glasner told his players after Brentford to buy in to his changes or leave. On Thursday he was calmer, but the message stayed the same. “It’s no compromises, I would say, in everything I believe in, what I believe is necessary to be successful. And it’s not just on the pitch, it’s off the pitch,” he said.
Haaland’s quiet run against Forest
Here is the one that stands out. Erling Haaland has not scored in his last four appearances against Forest. He arrives in form after his 78th-minute winner in Leipzig, his 13th goal in just nine games against the German side, and after he told his team-mates to step up he will want to lead by example.
Two former City players will be in the other dressing room. Liam Delap has not scored in his last five starts for Forest and, as our Forest predicted lineup explains, could lose his place to Chris Wood. James McAtee has been one of Glasner’s better performers: at Brentford he completed 56 of his 72 passes, had a match-high 96 touches and 24 completed final-third passes, and had Forest’s only shot on target.
What does the head-to-head say?
City have won two of their four league visits to Nottingham Forest since Forest came back up in 2022 (D1 L1). The most recent was a 2-1 win in December last year.
The defeat in that run came in March 2025, when Callum Hudson-Odoi scored late to give Forest a 1-0 win. The last meeting of all was a 2-2 draw at the Etihad in March, with Elliot Anderson scoring Forest’s late equaliser before his big-money move to City in the summer.
Glasner’s own record against City is poor. As Crystal Palace boss he lost four of his five league meetings with them (D1), conceding at least three goals in every defeat.
Verdict: the stats point one way, but City cannot be sloppy
Every number above favours City. A side that has not scored at home all season is hosting a team that usually creates plenty, and Forest’s manager has a bad record against them.
But that is exactly the kind of setting where City’s recent habit of gifting goals could hurt them. Forest will not need many chances if City keep making individual errors. We expect City to win, and our predicted lineup for the trip has Doku back on the left, but a clean sheet would mean as much as the three points.
